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DeFi Alpha Call #21 Recap

October 04, 2022

Timestamps

00:31 Long-standing FUD for Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank

04:50 Juno discussion (US only)

09:27 Canadian Banks

10:20 Housing situation in Canada and Brazil

11:56 Market Overview

13:23 Commodities

15:48 USD

16:35 S&P

17:12 Volatility Signals

18:38 Bitcoin

20:51 NFTs

29:47 Tutorial

Hello Defiers! This is the recap of our latest DeFi Alpha Call that took place on 10/3/2022 in Discord.

Market Overview

  • Ethereum hasn’t really gone anywhere since last week.
  • The low is holding.
  • I’m still cautiously bullish.
  • We seem to have run out of sellers and whoever’s left doesn’t really have an incentive to dump at these prices.

I think a break to the upside is more likely this week. We didn’t break the lows after the Fed hike, and the fourth quarter is traditionally the strongest for risk assets.

The market has been carried along by macro winds, without much actually happening in the crypto market itself. I think the odds favor bulls at this point, at least for the month of October. So let’s see how it goes.

👀 Eyes on: US payrolls on Friday and inflation numbers next week.

Commodities

the-defiant

Crude Oil Prices: All of the gains from the Ukraine crisis have been given back. Oil is back to where it was in January and OPEC is talking about supply cuts. So technically speaking, crude is back in a bear market.

Wheat: Prices soared because Ukraine is Europe’s breadbasket but prices have dipped back to pre-war levels.

Most traders stick to a simple rule. When something is trading below its 200-day moving average, you should look to short on bounces and conversely, buy dips when it trades above the 200dma. Always try to trade in the direction of the trend. Don’t play the hero, unless it’s for short-term, tactical trades.

USD

the-defiant

The dollar’s recent decline reflects the fact that it had been stretched too far. I hope to see it crack 111. If this happens, the cryptocurrency market should rally.

S&P

the-defiant
  • If you look at the big picture, there’s little progress.
  • If Friday’s low holds, then we’re likely going to see a good fourth quarter.

Volatility signals

the-defiant
  • Friday’s S&P low wasn’t confirmed by the VIX (lower high/divergence).
  • A signal that sellers are running out of steam.
  • Possible reversal.

Bitcoin

  • Somehow, an invisible hand is holding it up above its June lows.

NFT Roundup

Renga It’s almost at a 3 ETH floor. This happens when I sell.

Fidenza by Tyler Hobbs. I talked about his new QQL collection in the Friday roundup. The floor is still holding near 100E. One of the best trades in NFTs and as far as art goes, I think it’s one of the best-looking pieces from the first generation of generative art.

The good old days: Top signals from the past.

Tutorials

Boosted Stablecoin Yield With Liquity Chicken Bonds

Stake ATOM For Up To 19% APR With Keplr Wallet

⍺ DeFi Alpha: Boosted Stablecoin Yield With Liquity Chicken Bonds

👉 Technical analysis will be the focus of one of the upcoming calls. Stay tuned for details.

Links shared during the call:

https://www.chickenbonds.org/blog-posts/where-does-the-amplified-yield-in-chicken-bonds-come-from

Research Bounty results 🎉@Risk_DAO has provided the best submission to our Research Bounty for the fair price formula of @ChickenBonds

For their thorough hard work and diligence we have rewarded them with 45k LQTY – congratulations 👏

— Liquity (@LiquityProtocol) October 3, 2022

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