Bitcoin’s 'Safe Haven' Narrative Is Being Tested: Binance Analysis

Bitcoin’s long-standing narrative as “digital gold” is being tested amid rising macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, according to a new report from Binance.

The analysis, released earlier today, looks at the effects of President Donald Trump’s recent sweeping tariff policy — the most aggressive since the 1930s — on crypto markets, particularly Bitcoin (BTC). Currently trading at $78,770, BTC is down 6% over the past week and 11% in the last two weeks, sitting nearly 28% below its all-time high of $108,000 set in January, according to CoinGecko.

“As crypto markets increasingly behave like risk assets, a prolonged trade war could continue to weigh on capital flows and dampen demand for digital assets in the near term,” the report states. “As a result, capital that might have entered crypto is either staying on the sidelines or shifting into perceived safe havens like gold.”

This cautious outlook seems to be resonating with traditional investors, according to the report, which cited a recent fund manager survey where just 3% said they’d allocate to Bitcoin under current conditions — compared to 58% who favored gold.

These findings underscore a growing debate: Can Bitcoin still be considered a reliable hedge during times of economic crisis?

What Experts Are Saying

“Bitcoin's safe-haven narrative is currently facing a crucial test amid global market volatility triggered by tariff concerns,” Alan Orwick, co-founder of Quai Network, told The Defiant. “While Bitcoin experienced price corrections earlier than traditional markets in Q1, its fundamental value proposition remains unchanged.”

Orwick added that as the most liquid and globally accessible digital currency, BTC’s utility during economic uncertainty may actually be strengthening. “The asset's recent performance should be viewed in the broader context of its evolution as a financial tool with unparalleled mobility across borders during turbulent times.”

Justin Barlow, Executive Director of the Sei Development Foundation, shared a similar, though more cautious, perspective: “Bitcoin’s relative strength during the post-tariff market downturn, at times rising as stocks fell, marked a subtle yet meaningful shift.”

He explained that BTC may be evolving into the digital hedge long discussed within crypto circles, especially as investors look for alternatives to dollar-linked assets in a weakening global economy. “It’s not gold yet, but it’s starting to act like it,” Barlow added.

Shifting Correlations

The Binance report also highlighted how the recent trade war-driven risk-off sentiment has influenced Bitcoin's correlation with both equities and traditional hedges. The report noted that when President Trump’s tariffs were first mentioned on January 23, the initial market reaction was fragmented.

“BTC and equities moved somewhat independently, pushing their 30-day correlation to a local low of -0.32 by February 20,” the report reads. “However, as the trade war rhetoric intensified and risk-off sentiment deepened into March, that figure climbed to 0.47, reinforcing BTC’s short-term alignment with broader risk sentiment.”

In contrast, the report found that Bitcoin’s correlation with gold weakened significantly. “What was previously a neutral-to-positive relationship turned sharply negative, with the 30-day BTC–gold correlation dropping to –0.22 in early April,” the report notes.

ETF Complications

Experts pointed to one factor that could complicate Bitcoin’s correlation to other assets: exchange-traded Funds (ETFs).

Spot Bitcoin ETFs were first approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on January 10, 2024, and began trading the following day.

Since then, 11 spot BTC ETFs have recorded a cumulative net inflow of around $36 billion, with total net assets surpassing $94 billion—roughly 5.65% of Bitcoin's total market cap, according to SoSoValue data.

“The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs represents a significant shift in how the asset integrates with traditional finance, potentially altering its correlation patterns with other investments,” Orwick said. “This development creates an interesting tension between Bitcoin’s original ethos of decentralization and self-custody and its growing mainstream adoption through regulated financial products.”

“ETFs don’t help,” David Materazzi, CEO of Galileo FX, echoed. “They change the holders. They change the intent. Bitcoin moves from hands to tickers, from conviction to convenience.”

Materazzi explained that while the coin stays the same, the demand doesn’t. “Funds treat it like anything else: something to rotate, to trim, to dump in a crunch,” he said. “That ties it tighter to the system it was built to reject. Correlation rises, meaning bleeds out.”