Late or Early Bull Market: Where in the Cycle are We?

gm, Defiers!

Today’s big story:

Most traders agree we’re in the middle of a bull market, but how much longer will the rally last?

In other news:

Google is building a new L1
Solana outperforms
Base overtakes Solana in NFT volume
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We’re back! Here’s what you need to know in web3 today

📈 Markets in the Last 24 Hours

TICKER	VALUE	24H
Bitcoin	$111,968	-0.23 %
Ethereum	$4,458.88	-2.85 %
XRP	$2.96	-1.83 %
BNB	$868.98	0.71 %
Solana	$212.02	2.27 %

MessariPortals	MINDSHARE Rank	MINDSHARE % Change (7d)
		15.91%
		66.90%
		2.25%
Powered by Messari Portals

Today’s Big Story

Is Alt Season Really Here?

Most traders would agree that we are in the latter innings of the ongoing bull market, but are uncertain of how much longer the music will keep playing.

With Bitcoin rallying roughly 8x to $124,000 from its bear market low of around $15,000, could that be all we get? CoinGecko suggests that BTC could either have topped already, or could top by the end of September, based on historical trends.

Days from BTC halving to cycle peak

Glassnode also highlighted this week that Bitcoin has now spent 273 days with a “super-majority of supply held in profit,” the second-longest stretch on record. The analytics firm also noted that “long-term holders have already realized more profit this cycle than in all but one prior cycle (2016–17)...Taken alongside other signals, this suggests the market has entered a late phase of the cycle.”

BTC Long Term Holders' Realized Profits

Recent top signals have ranged from treasury companies piling into altcoins, to Kanye West launching a memecoin, and celebrities shilling crypto again.

However, the question remains: has the market really topped, or is it simply following the playbook from previous cycles, where Bitcoin rallies first and then enters a consolidation phase as investors shift to altcoins?

Altcoin Outperformance

Since the June low, large-cap altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin even as the world’s largest cryptocurrency rallied from $99,000 to an all-time high of $124,000. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s dominance – its share of total crypto market capitalization – has slipped to 58% after peaking at 66% on June 27.

Ethereum is booming, with the ecosystem’s onchain activity and DeFi TVL at 2025 highs as ETH trades near all-time highs.

Standard Chartered predicts that ETH could hit $7,500 by year-end as treasury companies like BitMine and SharpLink vie to accumulate Ether, all while spot ETFs continue to attract inflows, with $9.4 billion added in July and August alone.

Monthly ETH ETF Flows

XRP has rallied by around 40% since July 1, while BNB has surged 35% to an all-time high of $900 during the same timeframe.

Rounding out the top five non-stable assets, SOL has also been outperforming recently, trading above $200 for the first time since February. Despite a cooldown in the memecoin sector, Solana’s DeFi ecosystem remains robust, with TVL approaching its January high of $12 billion.

Last but certainly not least, Hyperliquid’s HYPE token hit an all-time high of $51 yesterday, valuing the decentralized perpetuals exchange and Layer 1 blockchain at $51 billion. The ecosystem continues to thrive as DeFi users flock to the HyperEVM in pursuit of airdrops.

Macro Backdrop

The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 0.25% at its September meeting after Chair Powell acknowledged at the Jackson Hole symposium that officials are concerned about a weakening labor market.

"The baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance," Powell said.

Markets rallied sharply after his remarks, but have since retraced most of those gains after Nvidia’s latest earnings report failed to impress investors.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar, which has declined 10% since President Trump took office, is likely to weaken further if the Fed indeed turns to easing monetary policy. Such weakness would further boost dollar-denominated assets, including stocks, commodities, and crypto.

All things considered, while it’s likely not the best time to pile in long with max leverage, we can probably expect the bull market to continue at least for a few more months.

It’s worth noting that none of Coinglass’s 30 Bull Market Peak indicators have been triggered yet, so we hopefully still have some time to book some gains before inevitably round-tripping our bags yet again.

yyctrader, Degen in Chief at The Defiant.

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🎬WATCH

The $10 Trillion Question: Crypto's Biggest Cycle Yet with Ellio Trades

In the latest episode of The Defiant Podcast, we sit down with Ellio Trades, Co-Founder of BlackHole, the fastest-growing decentralized exchange on Avalanche. Ellio shares his insights on the current state of the crypto market, including whether we're entering a new altcoin season or witnessing a slower, more sustainable growth cycle. He dives deep into the maturation of the crypto space, the role of institutional investors, and why this cycle could be the most significant in crypto history.

Ellio also unpacks the innovative mechanics behind BlackHole, from its V3.3 DEX model to its focus on creating deep liquidity and sustainable revenue. He explains how BlackHole is reshaping the DeFi landscape and why Avalanche was the perfect ecosystem for its launch. Watch now to gain valuable insights on the future of blockchain, decentralized finance, and the next wave of crypto adoption.

Top News in the Past 24 Hours

Google Unveils Layer 1 Chain for Banks with Python-Based Smart Contracts Google Cloud is developing a new Layer 1 blockchain network called Google Cloud Universal Ledger (GCUL), built for financial institutions. The network supports Python-based smart contracts, is currently in private testnet, and is designed to be a neutral payments network. A pilot with CME Group is already underway. Why it matters: GCUL positions Google as a major infrastructure provider in on-chain finance, offering a compliant, institution-friendly alternative to private blockchains—if it makes it out of testnet.
Solana Leads Major Altcoins as Buyers Pile In Ahead of Treasury Companies Solana (SOL) continues to outperform other altcoins even as the memecoin frenzy has cooled, as treasury-focused investment firms prepare to accumulate large positions. DeFi activity and TVL are also picking up. Why it matters: Rising institutional interest in SOL could stimulate further price gains.
Base Overtakes Solana in NFT Volume as Zora Drives Minting Frenzy Coinbase’s Layer 2 network Base has surged past Solana in NFT trading volume, boasting $122 million in volume and millions of mints. Growth has been powered by Zora, recording 1.6 million tokens minted in July alone. Why it matters: Base is emerging as a new hub for creators. This marks a shift in NFT ecosystems, where social layer tools like Zora are redefining how digital assets are minted and monetized.