How Big a Rate Cut?

Olivia Capozzalo & Denis Omelchenko
September 08, 2025

Happy Monday, Defiers!

Today’s big story:

• Markets are getting a boost as expectations solidify for a Fed rate cut this month after a weak August jobs report — now the question is, how big a cut?

In other news:

• TRON surpassed Ethereum in 30-day fees
• Hyperliquid revealed plans for a stablecoin
• The TVL on perps DEX Lighter surged above $350M
• Goat Network: The future of Bitcoin DeFi and sustainable BTC yield [SPONSORED]

Read more below! But first, please give our sponsors some love; they make this newsletter possible.

Stellar Core Upgrades Pave Path to 5000 TPS and 2.5 Second Block Time

The Stellar network has always been one of the cheapest, but now it looks like the network upgrades will halve block time and increase throughput by parallelizing Stellar core. With planned upgrades, the Stellar network will incorporate new core advancement protocols that bring this performance even closer to reality.

READ MORE: Parallelizing Stellar Core: The First Step Toward 5000 TPS

We’re back! Here’s what you need to know in web3 today

📈 Markets in the Last 24 Hours

	TICKER	VALUE	24H
	Bitcoin	$112,312	1.05 %
	Ethereum	$4,341.71	0.97 %
	XRP	$2.99	3.01 %
	BNB	$880.06	0.72 %
	Solana	$214.59	5.40 %

Today’s Big Story

Crypto Markets Get a Boost as Rate Cut Expectations Rise

Cryptocurrency markets rose slightly to start the week, after U.S. jobs data for August came in weaker than expected on Friday, giving investors more confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its meeting later this month — the question remains by how much?

Bitcoin (BTC) is back trading above $112,500 and Ethereum (ETH) is hovering above the $4,300 mark, while the total crypto market capitalization climbed back up to $3.98 trillion, up 1.5% over the past 24 hours.

Interestingly, the moves in crypto ETFs tell a bit of a mixed story. Last week, spot Ethereum ETFs saw their largest weekly outflow ever, with a net $787.7 million leaving the products, according to SoSoValue. Total net assets across spot ETH ETFs now sit at $27.64 billion, while cumulative inflows since inception remain at $12.73 billion, and $9.34 billion changed hands over last week, which only had four trading days.

Weekly flow for spot ETH ETFs

In contrast, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw relatively strong inflows, gaining $246.4 million over the week. Total net assets grew to $144.05 billion, with cumulative inflows at $54.49 billion and $13.27 billion traded over last week.

Rate Cut Expectations Rise

The divergence in flows across exchange-traded products comes as the August U.S. labor market data revealed a sharp slowdown, with the unemployment rate hitting a near four-year high of 4.3%.

Standard Chartered now sees a possible 50-basis-point Fed rate cut this month, double its earlier forecast, Reuters reported yesterday. Other banks, like Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank, aren’t ready to go that far, but they say the weaker August jobs data could set up cuts in back-to-back meetings. Markets are currently pricing in a 90.5% chance of a 25-bps cut and a 9.5% chance of a 50-bps cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

All of this leaves the market riding a few key tailwinds: rate-cut expectations, steady institutional demand, and easing global economic uncertainty.

Investors will likely be keeping an eye on upcoming inflation data this week, namely Sept. 10’s producer price index (PPI) data and the consumer price index (CPI) on Sept. 11 for more hints on how the Fed might move at its next meeting, set for Sept. 16-17.

Denis Omelchenko, staff reporter at The Defiant

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🎬WATCH

Bitcoin Mining’s Golden Age or Final Battle? Insights From Fakhul Miah

In the latest episode of The Defiant Podcast, Vinny sat down with Fakhul Miah, managing director of GoMining Institutional and former Morgan Stanley executive, to explore the rapidly evolving world of Bitcoin mining in 2025. From the rise of AI hyperscalers competing for energy resources to the financial engineering transforming miners into sophisticated operators, this conversation dives deep into the challenges and opportunities shaping the future of the industry.

Top News in the Past 24 Hours

• TRON Surpasses Ethereum in 30-Day Fees TRON has generated over $50 million in fees over the last 30 days, fueled by more than 260 million transactions, while Ethereum generated $43 million across 48 million transactions. Why it matters: TRON is now the leading blockchian in 30-day network fees. TRON’s founder, Justin Sun, remains a controversial figure in the industry, with the latest Sun-related drama involving the Trump family’s WLFI.
• Hyperliquid Could Launch USDH Stablecoin in Next Network Upgrade Decentralized perpetuals exchange Hyperliquid announced that it will launch a native stablecoin, dubbed USDH, in its next major network upgrade. Currently, several projects are submitting proposals to develop and launch the stablecoin, and validators will vote on the proposals after the network’s next upgrade. Why it matters: Hyperliquid is the largest DEX for perps trading, with nearly $7 billion traded in the past 24 hours. Issuing its own stablecoin would reduce dependence on third-party stablcoins for its trading pairs, namely USDC and USDT.
• Lighter TVL Surges Above $350 Million Another perps DEX, Lighter, is attracting increased inflows as it prepares to close its private beta phase and open to the public. The DEX’s TVL has surged over the past few weeks, breaking over $380 million this weekend, a more than 90% increase from the beginning of August. Why it matters: The TVL surge is especially notable for a protocol in private beta, setting it up for a strong public launch. It also indicates that users are betting on a lucrative airdrop.

Trending on The Defiant

• Lighter TVL Surges Above $350 Million
• Crypto Markets Trade Sideways as August Jobs Report Disappoints
• TRON Surpasses Ethereum in 30-Day Fees
• Hyperliquid Could Launch USDH Stablecoin in Next Network Upgrade
• SWIFT Exec Says Banks Will Absorb ‘the Best of Public Chains’
• Fireblocks Launches Stablecoin Payments Network with Built-In Compliance

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