Kalshi vs Polymarket: The Battle for Onchain Bets

Squiffs _ & Camila Russo
August 27, 2025

gm, Defiers!

Today’s big story:

Kalshi names a new head of crypto days before Polymarket announced Donald Trump Jr as an investor and advisor — more signs prediction market wars are heating up

In other news:

Bitcoin reclaims $112,000
Hyperliquid whale wipes out Plasma’s XPL order book
Aave Labs launches institutional platform Horizon
Stargate approves LayerZero takeover
G oat Network: The Future of Bitcoin DeFi and Sustainable BTC Yield [SPONSORED]

Read more below! But first, please give our sponsors some love; they make this newsletter possible.

Coinspect delivers full-stack security for web3 builders. We uncover critical vulnerabilities others miss, letting you innovate confidently, ship faster, and safeguard users, assets, and reputation through industry-trusted services.

Mezo Mainnet is live! Mint MUSD — Bitcoin-backed, dollar-pegged, and fully permissionless. BTC is finally productive. Start borrowing today at mezo.org/overview

DeFi Saver just launched DFS Trending and DFS Zaps, two interconnected features designed to simplify and aid users in choosing their DeFi strategies. The Trending page offers an overview of the most common strategies currently being executed via supported DFS protocols. These strategies are presented in the form of Zaps, custom-made recipes made in advance, so that once you find a strategy you fancy, execution is just one click away!

Try it out now via DeFi Saver.

We’re back! Here’s what you need to know in web3 today

📈 Markets in the Last 24 Hours

TICKER	VALUE	24H
Bitcoin	$112,117	0.75 %
Ethereum	$4,581.74	-0.25 %
XRP	$3.01	-0.48 %
BNB	$863.8	0.23 %
Solana	$207.33	5.28 %

MessariPortals	MINDSHARE Rank	MINDSHARE % Change (7d)
	MINDSHARE Rank	MINDSHARE % Change (7d)
		10.42%
		72.06%
		-19.14%
Powered by Messari Portals

Today’s Big Story

Prediction Market Wars: Kalshi vs. Polymarket Heats Up

The prediction market race is heating up as Polymarket and Kalshi go blow-for-blow with major announcements.

On Monday Kalshi unveiled its most intriguing crypto-focused announcements yet, by anointing influencer John Wang with the title of Kalshi’s Head of Crypto. Since his appointment, Wang has been talking a big game about future crypto activations coming out of Kalshi, which prior to this, only featured cryptocurrency account funding on crypto-related bets.

Despite the promises, Kalshi and Wang have received massive pushback from the crypto-natives who blame Kalshi for an array of poor business practices and for intentionally trying to take down “one of our own,” referring to Kalshi’s alleged attempts to smear Polymarket.

Polymarket’s New Big Backer

Polymarket on the other hand has responded immediately, announcing that its newest investor and advisor is Donald Trump Jr., the son of the President of the United States and co-founder of World Liberty Financial.

As paid influencers and investors in both projects continue to go after each other’s throats on X, there’s a growing overlap between the two businesses in the background.

While most recently betting on Polymarket, Donald Trump Jr. is also an advisor to Kalshi. Polymarket bulls thought they won favoritism from Elon Musk’s X after announcing that Polymarket would become the official prediction market of the social media platform that crypto-natives spend most of their time on. But Kalshi announced in July that it partnered with X’s AI-focused arm, xAI, showing that yet again, large entities and figures are working with both teams.

Increasingly Similar

While debates and insults get thrown around on social media, both Kalshi and Polymarket’s relevance and social presence are exploding, and their business partnerships are starting to look similar. Polymarket is vying for the U.S. audience via a compliant platform, which has been Kalshi’s strength, while Kalshi is now leaning into crypto, which has been Polymarket’s territory.

However, for all the noise that’s being generated, there has been hardly any increase in prediction market activity, and Polymarket is slated to have its slowest month since April.

That hasn’t stopped new entrants from continuing to flood a seemingly saturated space: just today The Clearing Company announced it secured a $15 million seed round led by Union Square Ventures.

While users and activity could be flocking over to Kalshi, it’s impossible to tell for certain as the market’s metrics are not publicly available. Who knows, maybe increased transparency will be one of the first initiatives its new head of crypto implements.

That’s it for today — stay Defiant!

Squiffs, staff reporter at The Defiant

Forwarded this newsletter? Subscribe for insights and curated news from The Defiant team, Monday-Friday. It’s free.

Subscribe to The Defiant Daily

🎬WATCH

The $10 Trillion Question: Crypto's Biggest Cycle Yet with Ellio Trades

In the latest episode of The Defiant Podcast, we sit down with Ellio Trades, Co-Founder of BlackHole, the fastest-growing decentralized exchange on Avalanche. Ellio shares his insights on the current state of the crypto market, including whether we're entering a new altcoin season or witnessing a slower, more sustainable growth cycle. He dives deep into the maturation of the crypto space, the role of institutional investors, and why this cycle could be the most significant in crypto history.

Ellio also unpacks the innovative mechanics behind BlackHole, from its V3.3 DEX model to its focus on creating deep liquidity and sustainable revenue. He explains how BlackHole is reshaping the DeFi landscape and why Avalanche was the perfect ecosystem for its launch. Watch now to gain valuable insights on the future of blockchain, decentralized finance, and the next wave of crypto adoption.

Top News in the Past 24 Hours

Bitcoin Reclaims USD 112,000 as Crypto Markets Rebound Crypto markets staged a midday comeback, pushing total capitalization up 2.2% to about $3.97 trillion. Bitcoin (BTC) rose to $112,000, with Ethereum (ETH) climbed 2.3% to $4,640. Standard Chartered forecasts ETH could reach $7,500 by year-end. Solana (SOL) led altcoin gains with an 8.7% surge to $208, thanks to Sharps Technology’s decision to allocate $400 million as a treasury reserve. Why it matters: The rebound underscores the resilience of crypto markets, with institutional ETF and treasury interest helping stabilize volatility.
Whale Trades on Hyperliquid Wipe Out XPL Order Book Triggering Mass Liquidations A whale-initiated trade on Hyperliquid sent chaos through the XPL pre-market: depositing $16 million USDC, a wallet bought 15.2 million of Plasma’s XPL token, rocketing the price to $1.80 from $0.60 in minutes and devastating short positions. Losses hit as much as $50 million, while the whale reportedly pocketed around $38 million in under an hour. Hyperliquid has promised new risk mechanisms but offered no compensation to affected users. Why it matters: This incident highlights how lightly regulated decentralized platforms remain vulnerable to manipulation. It underscores the importance of robust risk controls and liquidity reserves in DeFi markets.
Aave Labs Launches Horizon, Enabling Institutions to Borrow Stablecoins Against RWAs Aave Labs has unveiled Horizon, a new platform allowing institutions to borrow stablecoins using tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) as collateral. Built on Aave’s protocol with compliance-first architecture, Horizon uses Chainlink SmartData to track asset values in real time and plans to add Proof of Reserve and SmartAUM tools for enhanced risk management. Why it matters: Horizon represents a key bridge between traditional finance and DeFi, providing a compliant path for corporate and institutional capital to access on-chain liquidity.
Stargate Approves USD 110 Million Takeover by LayerZero The Stargate DAO has voted overwhelmingly (95% of voting power) to approve a $110 million takeover by LayerZero, dissolving the Stargate DAO and swapping STG tokens for LayerZero’s ZRO at a fixed 1:0.08634 ratio. Vote concentration was notable: just two addresses controlled over half the support, and a cluster of six additional addresses (likely controlled by one entity) added another ~7%. Rival bids, including Wormhole’s $120 million cash offer, surged during the final vote days, but governance moved forward. Why it matters: The takeover underscores growing developer consolidation in DeFi yet also raises red flags about governance centralization, as limited token-holder participation skewed outcomes.