Polymarket Shows Reality Setting In After Trump Stays Silent on Crypto

The odds of President Donald Trump creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) in his first 100 days rebounded on prediction market Polymarket after disappointment on the first day of his administration.

Rising steadily throughout the month to 48% on Jan. 20, the odds plunged to 28% on Jan. 21 after Trump did not mention an SBR – or anything crypto-related – on a busy Inauguration Day.

But today, the odds popped back up to 41%, as initial disappointment wore off and some crypto news did start to break. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced plans for a Crypto 2.0 task force headed by Commissioner Hester “Crypto Mom” Peirce.

The crypto community had been hoping for more on Day One than it got, which was the appointment of crypto-friendly Paul Uyeda as acting chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Beyond that, presumptive Department of Government Efficiency head Elon Musk tweeted out that Silk Road darknet market founder Ross Ulbricht would be pardoned, even though it didn’t happen on Day One as Trump had promised.

There was no mention of a Bitcoin reserve or of acting Crypto and AI Czar David Sacks and SEC Chairman nominee Mark Atkins.

Exaggerated Expectations

Unity Wallet COO James Toledano was not among those upset by the omission.

"A lot of crypto investors were expecting Trump to mention Bitcoin or crypto in his speech yesterday, but previous presidents have never mentioned stocks or other tradable assets in their inauguration speeches for good reason,” Toledano said.

“Speculation around a U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, rumors of a Trump executive order on crypto and hopes for regulatory clarity on day one of his presidency have fueled exaggerated expectations, but change doesn’t happen overnight. Price surges around major political events are often rooted in speculative narratives and wishful thinking,” he added.

That’s starting to sink in. Polymarket shows the odds of whether President Trump will issue a cryptocurrency executive order in his first week dropping from 69% to 35% over the course of Jan. 21.