The Defiant

Disparity Between Bitcoin HODLers and Daytraders Hits Record

Short-term holders have hit a 10-year low, while long-term investors continue accumulating undeterred, with a hoard approaching 15M BTC.

By: Pedro Solimano Loading...

Disparity Between Bitcoin HODLers and Daytraders Hits Record

The Bitcoin ecosystem is observing the largest disparity on record between its long-term and short-term holders.

As per data from Glassnode, coins held by long-term entities (tagged as such based on holding for longer than 155 days, a number that aligns with when Bitcoin regained $30,000) have been on a consistent uptrend since mid-2021. Marked by a trough at the height of the previous bull run, investors with longer time horizons have accumulated nearly 15M BTC.

This contrasts with traders with shorter timeframes, who peaked in mid-2021. Their holdings have plummeted since then and are approaching the 2.3M mark, a level last seen a decade ago.

Bitcoin Long/Short-term Holdings chart
Bitcoin Long/Short-term Holdings

Bitcoin currently trades at $37,700, according to Coingecko, remaining reasonably stable over the past 24 hours.

Market analyst James Straten noted that short-term holders (STHs) either continue to sell for profit/loss or eventually become long-term holders (LTHs). He added that during blow-off tops, LTHs sell off into bull markets, and STHs buy due to FOMO, or the fear of missing out.

As anticipation for a spot Bitcoin ETF mounts, the generalized bullishness of long-term holders could be attributed to institutions front-running the approval, along with other indicators that are also flashing positive for the crypto industry in the United States.

Coinbase Premium

Another bullish shift comes from leading US crypto exchange Coinbase, where Bitcoin trades at the highest premium of the year over Binance’s BTC/USDT pair – when excluding the March 2023 USDC depeg caused by banking contagion fears.

BTC Premium on Coinbase chart
BTC Premium on Coinbase

As pointed out by analyst Dylan LeClair, when adjusted to account for the March depeg, the premium has skyrocketed.

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Interestingly, there have been two geographic aspects fueling what could be bullishness within U.S. markets.

As per data from Glassnode, while Bitcoin has remained in a recent uptrend, monthly price variations have surpassed $3,000, mainly induced by buyers and sellers trading BTC/USD on Coinbase. Conversely, Asia (a region dominated by Binance) has flipped negative during its trading season, translating to less monthly variation due to less interest from traders.

Average BTC Trade Size Across Exchanges
Average BTC Trade Size Across Exchanges

Kaiko also reports that the average Bitcoin trade size has increased on U.S. based exchanges, whilst mostly dropping on international platforms.

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