Bitwise CIO Says Trump’s Executive Order Could End Crypto’s Four-Year Cycles

Crypto’s four-year cycles could be a thing of the past following US President Donald Trump’s executive order to make growing the digital assets ecosystem in the U.S. a national priority, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan.

In a Jan. 29 blog post, Hougan says that while he does not think the industry has overcome the four-year cycle, he believes corrections will not be as severe as in previous years.

“My guess is that we haven’t fully overcome the four-year cycle. Leverage will build up as the bull market builds. Excess will appear. Bad actors will emerge. And at some point, there could be a sharp pullback when the market gets over its skis,” Hougan said.

“But my guess is that any pullback will be shorter and shallower than in years past. Why? The crypto space has matured; there’s a greater variety of buyers and more value-oriented investors than ever before. I expect volatility, but I’m not sure I’d bet against crypto in 2026.”

Four Year Cycles

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, generally moves in four-year cycles around its halving events. Once Bitcoin rallies, it tends to drive the entire market higher.

Each cycle usually begins with a catalyst, such as a technological advancement or a significant event that attracts massive capital and investors to the industry. The current cycle has been fueled by the advent of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S.

According to the four-year cycle, the next significant crypto market decline should occur in 2026.