Arthur Hayes Forecasts Bitcoin Collapsing to $70,000

It took exactly three weeks for Arthur Hayes to go from “giddy” bullishness at the beginning of the year to calling for Bitcoin to fall as low as $70,000.

In a Jan. 6 blog post, the former BitMEX CEO said that in his role as chief investment officer for his family office, Maelstrom, he was encouraging “the risk-takers at the fund to turn the risk dial to DEGEN.”

But on Jan. 27, he compared the outlook to skiing on a mountain primed for an avalanche.

“I told the world about my bullishness, at least in the first quarter, in my first essay of the year,” Hayes wrote. “But as we close out January, my giddiness has evaporated.”

Citing several macro banking issues, “the relationship between the US 10-yr treasury / stocks / Bitcoin prices, and the insane $TRUMP memecoin price action produced a pit in my stomach,” he said. “This is a similar feeling I got in late 2021, right before the bottom fell out of the crypto markets.”

While history may not repeat itself, “it does rhyme,” Hayes added.

While he doesn’t think the current bull cycle is over, looking ahead, he thinks “we are more likely to go down to $70,000 to $75,000 Bitcoin and then rise to $250k by the end of the year than to continue girding higher with no material pullback.”

His family office has raised its holding of staked Ethena USDe stablecoins “to record levels” and is selling “several shitcoin positions” at a profit.

Why? He wants plenty of liquid funds “to buy the dip on Bitcoin and a mega dip on many quality shitcoins.”

But it’s going to get ugly “because the current level of bullishness is so high,” Hayes predicts.