Elon Musk’s Grok 4 Demo Taps Polymarket for Prediction Data

Prediction market Polymarket and Elon Musk’s new Grok 4 AI both give the Los Angeles Dodgers the best shot at winning the 2025 World Series.

During a livestream unveiling Grok 4’s capabilities, Musk’s AI venture xAI showcased how the model integrates Polymarket data, citing a live prediction on who will win the MLB championship. Polymarket currently gives the Dodgers a 28% chance of victory, while Grok 4 estimates a 21.6% likelihood.

“In some ways it’s a little terrifying, but the growth of intelligence here is remarkable,” Musk said during the demo.

The collaboration stems from a June announcement that xAI and X (formerly Twitter) had partnered with Polymarket as their official prediction market provider. Polymarket said users can now use Grok to “become a better trader,” highlighting the AI’s access to real-time prediction data.

Polymarket’s insights will now appear across X, while Polymarket will pull from Grok and X posts to enrich the context behind market events.

Rising Volume, Rising Profile

Polymarket surged in prominence during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, when trading volume spiked to $2.5 billion in October from just $533 million in September. It remained elevated through November before tapering off post-election. Since then, monthly volumes have stabilized between $150 million and $300 million — still far higher than its pre-2024 baseline.

Before June 2024, Polymarket rarely saw volumes above $20 million per month. That threshold is now routine, with sports and politics dominating activity. The largest markets include, Formula 1 Drivers Championship at $63 million, Federal Reserve rate decision at $35 million, World Series at $21 million, New York Mayoral election at $19 million, Bitcoin price peak in 2025 at $16 million (61% say BTC will hit $130,000)

Suitgate and Scrutiny

Not all outcomes have been smooth. A recent controversy emerged over the resolution of a market asking whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would “wear a suit before July.”

Despite the occasional uproar, Polymarket boasts strong performance. An independent analyst in March pegged its historical prediction accuracy at 94%.

The platform is reportedly in talks to raise a $200 million round led by Founders Fund, the venture firm founded by Peter Thiel, according to multiple sources.