Will War Stop Uptober? Experts Weigh In

Rising tensions between Israel and its neighbors Iran and Lebanon, are dampening a historically bullish month for Bitcoin.

October is known as “Uptober” by investors thanks to its bullish price action in previous years. ETC Group reported that the 10th month of the year has an average monthly performance of 29%, only trailing November with 37% and April with 35%.

However, this year might be a bit different – especially as Bitcoin (BTC) falls 2% to $60,700 today and Ethereum (ETH) slumps 4% to $2,400.

André Dragosch, European head of research for Bitwise reckons Uptober is “on hold” because of geopolitical conflict. He told The Defiant that positive seasonality and geopolitical risk events have proven to be buying opportunities in the past, which makes him think “that Uptober won’t be canceled completely.”

Dessislava Ianeva, research analyst for on-chain data company Kaiko, said that historically October is a good month for risk assets. Ianeva told The Defiant that “seasonality typically starts to be helpful for both crypto and equities” this time of the year.

That said, she also thinks the geopolitical tensions and macro factors might reduce the potential for higher prices.

“There is a lot of uncertainty stemming from monetary policy and the upcoming U.S. elections, so many traders may adopt a wait-and-see approach,” she said.

Others don’t believe in Uptober at all, however.

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares said that from an empirical standpoint the concept isn’t “really a thing.” He told The Defiant that last year was a good example, where October price rises were due to the Grayscale court case, and not because of the month itself.

Butterfill added that the Middle East conflict does impact Bitcoin prices – similarly to what happened when Russia invaded Ukraine – but back in 2022 hawkish monetary policy forces were also at play. The analyst reckons that war between Israel and its neighbors seems to be on the lowest rung when it comes to putting sell pressure on BTC and the broader crypto market.

He pointed to the 3.3% monthly growth in JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey), which he called a Fed-favored measure for job growth, as “detrimental” to the Bitcoin price.

Best September Ever

While September has historically been a bad month for Bitcoin, this past month was the best September ever for the asset , which could help to assuage concerns of a Middle Eastern-induced downtrend.

BTC gained 7.29% according to renowned crypto trader Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. On his Oct. 1 YouTube market recap, he explained that the number beats the previous 6.04% record from Sept. 2016, and there’s only been four green septembers ever, said Melker.

Conflict aside, could a bullish September be a sign of good things to come?

Melker was joined by Butterfill, who quickly shot down the idea. Before claiming that he thinks prices will rise in October, Butterfill said, “as a Bitcoin community we spend too much time focusing on history, and that the price doesn’t rise because there are people looking at previous months or years.”

Melker added in another datapoint that contradicts the potential for Uptober “we’ve never had a green September followed by a green October,” he said.