Polymarket Whales Cash Out Millions on Trump Win

Polymarket, the onchain prediction market, resolved its largest market ever this morning with the conclusion of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with some big players cashing in huge gains.

According to Polymarket Analytics, the user known as the “Trump Whale” is now the most profitable trader of all time on Polymarket after making $47 million from their election bets.

The account profited $21 million on Donald Trump’s victory, $12 million on Trump’s popular vote win, and $6 million on Kamala Harris’ loss of the popular vote, with other “smaller” profits based on the outcome of swing states.

The second most profitable trader, “zxgngl,” also made $11 million on Trump’s victory.

On the losing side, the prediction market’s two least profitable traders lost nearly $12 million combined.

Polymarket’s presidential election market processed over $3 billion in total volume since its opening, compared to competitors such as Kalshi, which generated just $430 million.

The decisive victory for the Republican party also lends weight to Polymarket’s credibility as a news source.

Many pundits claimed that Polymarket odds were skewed towards the bias of crypto users and that traditional betting market odds and election poll predictions were more credible.

While both Kalshi and Polymarket odds followed similar patterns, Polymarket put Trump’s odds of victory as high as 67% by the last week of October, while Kalshi markets resolved at 61% during the same period.

This morning, Polymarket said, “Last night, Polymarket proved the wisdom of markets over the polls, the media, and the pundits….We are proud to have delivered high quality, transparent data to everyone across the globe and ahead of everyone else.”