Polymarket Does More Volume in 5 Days than All of 2023

Onchain prediction market Polymarket has already done more volume in the first five days of November than in all of 2023.

October marked Polymarket’s best month ever, eclipsing $1 billion in volume, and November is off to an even hotter start. The prediction market has processed $355 million in the last five days, compared with $73 million in all of 2023.

Election markets are driving the most volume, as U.S. citizens are heading to the polls today. Donald Trump’s odds are up 10% in the last 48 hours to 62%, according to the prediction market, leaving Kamala Harris at a 38% chance of winning the election.

Harris briefly flipped Trump towards the end of September, but the former president has maintained a commanding lead on Polymarket since the beginning of October.

The correlation between the Bitcoin price and Trump's odds has been a common theme over the last 6 months, and the BTC price shot up alongside Trump’s odds this morning. As the Trump victory odds surged, BTC followed suit and is up over 3% today after briefly surpassing the $70,000 mark.

Polymarket is a prediction market built on Polygon, which has raised $74 million in funding since its seed round in 2020. Its most recent raise of $45 million in May featured notable investors, including Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.

As of Sept. 23, it has been rumored that Polymarket is potentially eyeing another $50 million raise and a native token launch. The timing for a new raise couldn’t be better for the protocol, as Polymarket is establishing clear product market fit, surpassing over $3 billion in volume on the presidential election market alone.

In 2024, Polymarket firmly broke into mainstream media as one of the top prediction markets despite being banned in the United States. The Polymarket: Election Forecast app is currently the #1 app in the news section of the Apple Store.

Alongside total betting volume, open interest on Polymarket has skyrocketed and is currently sitting at an all-time high of $390 million, up 1800% from 6 months ago and 4300% from November of 2023.