Polymarket Stalls on BTC Reserve Market Despite Trump’s Executive Order

Crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket's market on whether President Donald Trump would establish a US Bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days in office remains unresolved, frustrating traders.

Earlier this week, the probability of Trump establishing a US Bitcoin reserve surged to 49% on Polymarket after he reiterated support for the idea. Yesterday, the president signed an executive order officially establishing the reserve. Despite this, the market remains unresolved, even as other platforms have already settled similar markets.

This delay has left approximately $10.5 million in limbo. Adding to the confusion, the probability of a "yes" outcome has dropped to 32% at the time of publishing, despite the executive order confirming the reserve’s creation.

The prolonged unresolved status of Polymarket’s prediction market has raised questions about the platform’s resolution mechanisms and the importance of clear conditions.

“There's going to be a huge fight about the $10M volume Polymarket on the SBR because the market was poorly specified,” Nic Carter, a general partner at Castle Island Ventures and columnist for CoinDesk, wrote on X. “Recommend having a lawyer draft these, not an illiterate.”

Polymarket didn’t respond to a request for comment from The Defiant by publishing time.

Why the Delay?

Alan Orwick, Co-Founder at Quai Network, told The Defiant that Polymarket’s issue highlights a core challenge with prediction markets—ambiguous criteria and real-world complexity. “If the resolution hinges on a specific definition of a 'national Bitcoin reserve' and there’s no clear, official confirmation, the market stalls,” he said.

Orwick added that prediction markets rely on clear, binary outcomes, but politics and policy decisions are often complex and don't always fit into simple yes-or-no scenarios. For example, some bills or executive orders may have specific start dates or evaluation periods that extend beyond the time frame defined in a prediction market.

“This is a reminder that for these markets to scale effectively, they need airtight resolution frameworks that account for the nuance of real-world events,” Orwick said.

Polymarket's terms state that the market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any Bitcoin in its reserves between January 20, 2025, and April 29, 2025. If no Bitcoin is held, it will resolve to "No."

It also noted that the confiscation of Bitcoin by the U.S. government does not count as holding reserves. Under Trump's new order, the US government will keep the estimated 200,000 Bitcoin (around $18 billion) it has already seized in criminal and civil cases, according to White House AI and crypto czar David Sacks.

Settlement Conditions

Similarly, Sid Powell, CEO at Maple Finance, told The Defiant that Polymarket's current challenge boils down to the need for well-defined settlement conditions.

“Prediction markets work best when outcomes are somewhat definitive, either black or white, however unforeseen political events often add shades of gray,” Powell said. “Without a concrete measurable trigger, resolution stalls and the result is frustrated traders and the erosion of trust.”

Powell stressed that the key takeaway is the necessity for more robust market frameworks “as these are critical in ensuring that these markets remain trustworthy and efficient.”