Markets

Polymarket priced the odds of the bill becoming law this year at 12.5% on Tuesday morning, down from 29.5% on Monday afternoon, ahead of a cloture vote scheduled for 2:15 p.m. Ninety-five of the 124 largest non-stablecoin tokens fell as the Federal Reserve opened a two-day meeting with a quarter-point increase priced at 86.5%.

Bitcoin added 2.3% to $79,164 and set its session high in New York rather than overnight, while the S&P 500 held a 0.3% loss. Seventy-nine of the 121 largest non-stablecoin tokens rose. The Senate votes at 2:15 p.m. Tuesday on whether to take up the CLARITY Act, and Polymarket traders price a quarter-point Federal Reserve increase on Wednesday at 85.5%.

Bitcoin reached $79,701.36 overnight and had round-tripped the move by midday in New York, leaving it flat over 24 hours. Ninety-three of the 123 largest non-stablecoin tokens are lower. Zcash holds a 56.3% weekly gain after DCG exchanged 85,705 ZEC for about $100 million of Grayscale's ETF, a swap disclosed in an 8-K filed Tuesday. U.S. spot bitcoin funds recorded their first outflow since Sept. 1.

ADP reported 38,000 private jobs added in August, down from 44,000 in July, and traders raised the odds of a September Federal Reserve increase anyway. Eighty-four of the 125 largest non-stablecoin tokens fell, gold rose 0.84% and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.29%.

ARB led the 108 largest non-stablecoin tokens after chain fees on Robinhood's network doubled in a day, taking the Arbitrum DAO's contractual 10% cut to roughly $192,000 a day. Bitcoin fell 0.7% while Japanese and U.S. government bond yields rose and gold dropped 1.9%.

Polymarket prices a quarter-point hike at 55.5% after Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, against 28% on Friday afternoon. Bitcoin is down 0.7% on the day and 24.5% higher since the start of August, while 88 of the 125 largest non-stablecoin tokens fell.

The 10-asset emerging benchmark is free-float market-cap weighted, with real-time pricing and London, New York and Asia-Pacific settlement variants.

Glassnode reported $138 million of Solana ETF inflows over 10 days, while BSOL captured nearly four-fifths of cumulative flows among six products tracked by Farside.

Bitcoin touched $79,999.99 on Coinbase before easing, its highest level since May, while 80 of the 123 largest non-stablecoin tokens fell on the day. Total crypto market value declined even as bitcoin rose.

Bitcoin gained 22.6% over seven days, its largest advance over any seven-day window since November 2024, after the president told crypto executives at the White House that Congress needs to pass market structure legislation.