Bernstein Lifts Robinhood Target to $160 on Prediction Markets

Bernstein raised its price target on Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) to $160 from $130 and kept an "Outperform" rating, telling clients that revenue from the brokerage's prediction-markets business is set to surpass its crypto trading revenue.

Analyst Gautam Chhugani projected prediction-market revenue would grow at a 64% compound annual rate through 2028 to reach roughly $1.7 billion. He estimated the second quarter of 2026 could be the first in which prediction-market revenue — put at about $150 million, up roughly 44% from the first quarter — exceeds crypto trading revenue.

The $160 target implies more than 60% upside from Friday's month-low of just under $100. It is based on a 35-times forward earnings multiple and a 2028 earnings-per-share estimate of $4.56, about 36% above Wall Street consensus, according to figures cited in the note.

Rothera and a "Frenemy" With Kalshi

Bernstein tied the upgrade to Robinhood's push into prediction markets, perpetual futures and tokenized equities, which it expects to grow from about 3% of total revenue in 2025 to roughly 18% in 2027 and about 23% in 2028.

The prediction-markets bet runs through Rothera, a CFTC-licensed exchange that Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group created after acquiring a majority stake in LedgerX in late 2025 and rebranding it. Rothera launched event contracts in May and, per the note, has processed more than 3.5 billion contracts, becoming the fourth-largest prediction platform by volume. It currently accounts for about 16% of Robinhood's total event-contract volume.

Chhugani characterized Robinhood's relationship with Kalshi as a "frenemy" arrangement: Robinhood continues to distribute Kalshi's contracts while running its own exchange, which the analyst argued gives it more control over pricing and long-term economics.

Market Reaction

HOOD rose more than 1% in pre-market trading Monday, leading gains among large-cap crypto-linked equities. The company is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on July 29, with consensus at $0.55 in EPS on $1.27 billion in revenue.

The projections rest on prediction markets sustaining rapid growth; the segment is young, and Robinhood's own exchange still trails Kalshi's marketplace by volume, leaving the revenue trajectory dependent on continued adoption.