Bitcoin Bounces to $68,000 Amid Global Market Rally

Crypto markets traded slightly higher on Thursday, with Bitcoin (BTC) rallying by 2.5% to $67,500.

Ethereum (ETH) climbed 1% to $2,520. Solana (SOL) stood out, gaining 6.6%, while Polkadot (DOT) was flat.

The crypto market has been volatile lately, with Bitcoin hovering in the $64,000 to $68,000 range as the U.S. election approaches. The global cryptocurrency market cap currently stands at $2.42 trillion, reflecting a 0.7% rise in the past 24 hours.

Data from CoinGlass reveals that in the past 24 hours, 82,338 traders were liquidated, with total liquidations amounting to $249 million. Over 70% of these were crypto longs, meaning traders were betting on asset prices increasing.

Analysts see the election outcome as a key factor influencing market sentiment.

Trump’s Potential Impact on Bitcoin

Jeff Park, head of alpha strategies at Bitwise, a crypto asset manager with $500 million in assets under management (AUM), believes Bitcoin could surge to $92,000 if Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidency.

Park used data from the crypto prediction platform Polymarket to chart Bitcoin’s price alongside Trump’s election odds.

“Charting BTC price against Trump’s odds (via Polymarket) from 8/15 to 10/20 reveals some wild swings—particularly when Harris and Trump took turns leading,” he said. “By applying merger arb-style probability math, I project a Trump victory could push BTC to ~$92,000.”

Merger arbitrage-style math involves calculating the probability of a specific outcome, such as a merger or election result, and predicting how asset prices will react based on that outcome.

Trump has tied his campaign to pro-crypto policies, making it a part of his 2024 platform. He has promised to make the U.S. the "crypto capital of the world" and vowed to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler on “day one” if elected.

Bitcoin’s High Mining Difficulty Could Dampen Volatility

In the broader Bitcoin ecosystem, mining difficulty has surged by 378% over the past three years, driven by growing institutional investment in large-scale mining operations. This has resulted in heightened competition and higher barriers to entry for individual miners.

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, believes this is a positive trend for Bitcoin’s long-term stability. He predicts that as institutional dominance in mining continues, it could reduce Bitcoin’s volatility, potentially positioning it as a more stable currency by 2030.

“While 50 BTC could be mined with a single PC in 2009, it has become difficult for individual miners to participate,” Ju noted.

Meanwhile, U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.4%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.15% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.66%.